Our Crucible Moment

One meaning of ‘crucible’ is a vessel for melting substances at extremely high temperature. The other is ‘a place or situation in which concentrated forces interact to cause or influence change or development’.

Planet Earth is 4.5 billion years old. Life has evolved for 3.7 billion of those years. Roughly 10,000 years ago humans and their domestic animals were 1% of mammal life. Today we are 99%. Life on earth faces the 6th great extinction. We are endangered. Ironically, it is not an external force. The threats are self-inflicted.

The potential for human life has never been greater. We master the environment, offer heroic medicine, innovate out of trouble, savour beauty, and show humbling altruism. We are more than capable to steward life on earth for the good of all species.

For those conscious of this ‘crucible moment’, it is scary, humbling and confusing. How do we live? What do we do? We must confront this difficult situation with restraint, skill and hope. If not, denial (the earth is cooling), anxiety (will my children survive), addiction (opioids, alcohol, social media), rage (polarisation, youth crime, conflict) and despair (depression, suicide, self-harm) await. Many have surrendered.

Navigating a path, I believe, has become the most important work we can do. Where do we start?

1.     Understanding the situation

Let’s begin with the Stockholm Resilience Centre and their updated Planetary Boundaries for 2023. Their work over the past 15 years is to understand what must be measured and managed to sustain life on earth. Weather events and ‘2023 hottest year’ get media attention. The threat is more complex. Please click the link and take 15 minutes to understand the current update to Planetary Boundaries.

Figure 1: Planetary Boundaries 2023 from Stockholm Resilience Centre

Of the nine dimensions, six have surpassed a safe operating zone and are accelerating. It takes just one to devastate human life—nuclear error, climate-induced crop failure, fresh water, maybe AGI?

We could include the demise of human fitness. Our physical capability, emotion regulation and mental health is at risk. The consequences include self-harm, suicide, social media addiction and withdrawal from ‘meatworld’. Recommend Generations by Jean Twenge, 2023.

Figure 2: Percent of US 12th Graders engaging in adult activity 1976- 2021, Twenge, 2023

The global investment in mental health—medication, psychiatry, psychology, prevention and education—has exploded over this time. Mental health is substantially worse and accelerating in the wrong direction. Many parents are challenged. Do we take young people off phones or social media? Do we enforce sustainable sleep schedules? Should we put them on drugs? Do we have to kick them out of home?

It is a big agenda and a wonderful opportunity for leadership. Most democratically elected leaders deny or delay. You vote them into power. You may enjoy Ministry for the Future to see how global attention might change!

2.     Select battles you can win!

Now we narrow our attention on what we can realistically do. Will we take action that will be complex, costly and uncomfortable? Or will we binge on fossil fuels, meat, clothes and Taylor Swift, while we still can. This is a fundamental choice—selfish hedonism or deliberate altruism? Small changes by a billion people have huge impacts.

Humanity reversed Ozone depletion, solar is replacing coal at a stunning pace in countries like Australia, and fertility is dropping so fast that developed nations are depopulating without immigration. National parks in Southern Africa have increased the viability of large mammals close on forty-fold. Electric vehicles are a viable and economic replacement for gas-guzzlers. And they rarely catch fire![1] We can take deliberate, proven steps to improve our mental, emotional and physical health.

Here is what Inflection AI suggests today for a rough estimate of priority and potential impact if a million people took each action:

1. Reduce, reuse, recycle: reduce waste by 1.5 million tons and save up to 3.5 million trees.

2. Save energy: reduce CO2 emissions by 1.2 million tons and save up to $200 million in energy costs.

3. Conserve water: save up to 4 billion gallons of water and reduce water waste by 20%.

4. Public transportation: reduce CO2 emissions by 1.6 million tons and decrease road congestion.

5. Eat sustainably: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.4 million tons and promote local agriculture.

6. Plant trees: absorb up to 1.5 million tons of CO2 and improve air quality.

7. Reduce plastic use: reduce plastic waste by 1.3 million tons and decrease ocean pollution.

8. Use sustainable businesses: increase demand for eco-friendly products and promote ethical practices.

9. Advocate for change: influence policy changes to promote sustainability and environmental protection.

10. Educate others: inspire more people to take action and create a ripple effect of positive change.

Artificial intelligence is having huge impacts on energy, medical and agricultural efficiency. In time it will help to nudge us toward more constructive behaviours – in health, work, leadership, planning, and daily living. Maybe check with your current AI preference?

As a family, we took the plunge into solar, batteries and an EV. The costs are dropping rapidly. The new version of our EV is far better and 25% cheaper today than in 2020. We rarely have to pay electricity bills. We send 20-35kWh into the grid on most days. Solar investments in Australia are removing a coal power station every year. This month ABC Newsshared that rooftop solar is surging at a staggering rate towards replacing coal.

Food is another big opportunity. The economist shared this graphic showing the carbon impact of foods. It is obvious that eating less beef and dairy could have a huge impact. Apologies to those countries fighting to export more beef and dairy. As we have long advocated, there are many good reasons to move toward vegetarian choices.

Figure 3: Treat Beef like Coal, Economist, October 2nd, 2021

3.     Take definitive daily action!

We start at different points. Select a couple of actions that you can take. Build these actions into your daily rhythms—how you travel, shop, eat, use power, vote, shower, etc. This is walking the talk. You will feel more constructive. Others will notice. Build a story that you can share. Share it. Be curious about what others are doing.

Last night, our team had a conversation about what B-Corp certification means to us both as a business and personally. These conversations are a wonderful way to connect, stimulate creativity, and drive motivation to take action.

Start a conversation today. Choose an action that you and your loved ones can take. Consider how this might change behaviour in your business. Will you consider joining the B-Corp movement?

Not sure that I can improve my AI’s response to hope below:

"Despite the daunting challenges posed by planetary boundaries, it's important to remain optimistic and hopeful. While the road ahead may seem difficult, we must remember that every action we take, no matter how small, contributes to a more sustainable future. To maintain momentum, we can focus on progress, celebrating small wins and acknowledging the positive impact of our collective efforts. It's also crucial to surround ourselves with like-minded individuals who share our passion for sustainability, as their enthusiasm and support can fuel our own. By staying informed and taking action, we can drive positive change and create a world that is more resilient, just, and sustainable for all. Remember, hope is not a passive state, but an active choice that requires determination, perseverance, and a willingness to keep pushing forward, even when the odds seem insurmountable."

Remember passing through a crucible creates adversity, drives innovation and selects for those who are best prepared. There is no time to dither.

[1] Fire is 20 times more frequent in combustion engines and 40 times more likely in a hybrid. See: https://www.teslarati.com/electric-vehicle-myth-busted-tusker-data-analysis/